Wriggling Under the Hammer
Yet another American political decision with global impact hits Nigeria in its own unique way; a worsening situation is also a symptom of what caused it, and we might just have more parties soon.
Last week, the United States announced tariffs of 14% on Nigerian exports into the country as its ‘Liberation Day tariffs’ came into effect on almost every country in the world before it was reduced to 10% universal tariffs for 90 days. The justification for these tariffs by the American government was that they are not just reciprocal but also only half of what Nigeria charges on American goods coming into the country. It has also said that Nigeria’s import ban on 25 products limits market access for Americans, even though it is not exclusive to American suppliers.
About 92% of Nigeria’s exports to the United States are crude oil and energy, which earned the country N4.49 trillion in 2024. As these tariffs do not apply to crude oil due to its status as a globally traded commodity and imposing tariffs would increase costs for US refiners and consumers, Nigeria gets off relatively easily from the impact of the tariffs. However, it will still affect the remaining 8% which are predominantly agricultural goods (sesame seeds, cocoa, raw and processed cashew nuts, ginger and garlic, etc), manufactured and semi-processed goods (leather products, textiles and garments, footwear and fashion accessories, etc), solid minerals (zinc ore, lead ore, tin, granite and limestone), and others like art and craft items.
Without a doubt, the tariffs will impact the competitiveness of Nigerian non-oil exports to the US, which have been enjoying zero tariffs for the last 25 years courtesy of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a landmark American law designed to increase market access for African countries into the US. The Act is set to expire in September this year, and there has been lobbying for its renewal; however, considering President Trump’s position on global trade, it is unlikely that it will be renewed.
However, it bears noting that Nigeria still did not make the most of the law in the quarter-century of its existence as the major Nigerian export to the US has remained crude oil, taking up over 90% of the exports. Pushing more non-oil exports to the world’s biggest market would have created more economic diversification for Nigeria, creating more jobs and driving more infrastructural development.
While Finance Minister Wale Edun has a point that Nigeria will be less directly affected by the tariffs compared to others, the global economic shocks that could result from this escalating trade war means that the tariffs could still impact us. The crude oil price has fallen to about $60 per barrel, $15 less than the benchmark crude oil price used for Nigeria’s 2025 budget. This potentially puts the revenue side of our budget in jeopardy. This will affect our exchange rate, which impacts the costs of imports and inflation; already, the Central Bank of Nigeria has had to intervene in the forex market to prevent the naira from falling.
Fun fact: Nigeria exported about N323.96 billion worth of non-oil products to the United States in 2024.
This House is Falling
About two weeks ago, an attack on six communities in Plateau State left at least 51 people dead and displaced at least 1,000 people, with almost 400 houses destroyed. It is not certain who is responsible for the attacks, which is very reminiscent of an attack on Christmas Eve in 2023 in the same area, which killed as many as 150 persons. However, a lot of fingers point at Fulani herdsmen militias who have been involved in internecine violence in the region that goes back for decades.
The attack comes just a few days after a mob in Edo State lynched 16 travelers identified as hunters from the North passing through the town of Uromi, accusing them of being kidnappers. This event itself was preceded by a spate of attacks by suspected Fulani herdsmen in the state, which raised tensions and contributed to the lynching. There have also been attacks in Ebonyi, Ondo, and Nassarawa States and repeated ones in Benue State since February. This is besides the near-daily news of bandit attacks and those by the Lakurawa terrorist group in the North-West.
Saying that insecurities plague Nigeria will be restating the obvious: it is Boko Haram/ISWAP in its northeastern corner, bandits and the Lakurawa sect in the far northwest, and herdsmen militias in the north-central and increasingly in the southeast and southwest. While the Niger-Delta is relatively quiet, there are still a lot of armed gangs there, evident in the threats preceding the state of emergency declaration in Rivers State.
However, a closer examination shows that most of Nigeria’s insecurity happens in its rural areas, which are grossly underpoliced, and the Nigerian state is not as present, worsened by Nigeria having as many as 6 million illegal arms in the hands of civilians. With 370,000 police officers for a population of 200 million, that gives a ratio of 1:600, against the UN-recommended ratio of one police officer to almost 450 citizens. However, when the numbers are adjusted to exclude the number of policemen on guard duties to companies and VIPs (estimated to be up to 30% as of 2011), the ratio falls even further.
The bulk of these policemen are in urban areas, leaving vast swathes of rural areas underpoliced. This is worsened by how they are poorly equipped, trained, resourced, remunerated, and motivated. This is a problem that has lasted decades, and rather than improving our policing system, the job of policing has increasingly been given to the military, which is ill-trained for it. Today, 80% of the Nigerian military is deployed in all 36 states of the country.
Unfortunately, there has not been much traction on how to reform the police system, as we seem stuck between increasing the numbers and legalising sub-national police forces. In the meantime, the spate of vigilantism continues, whether those that are state-backed, such as Amotekun and the Edo State Police Vigilante Group, or those set up by communities, such as the one implicated in the Uromi lynching.
Fun fact: At least 20 states have their own vigilante or community-based security outfits despite the Constitution making the establishment of security agencies an exclusive federal right.
Gearing Up to Party
Two weeks ago, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) disclosed that it has received 91 applications from groups seeking recognition as political parties. It has yet to decide on these applications and has reiterated that it will only approve those that meet legal requirements as spelled out in the Constitution and the Electoral Act 2022.
There are varied reactions from existing political parties to this surge in applications: the APC has dismissed the influx of applications as mere distractions by political actors seeking relevance. Within the opposition, responses vary: while the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) welcomes the momentum, citing it as evidence of public disillusionment with existing parties, the Labour Party has taken a more cautious stance, urging INEC to scrutinize each application closely. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Nigeria’s biggest opposition party, fears that too many new entrants could undermine coalition-building efforts ahead of 2027.
There are two major concerns: first, if the applicants will meet the legal thresholds for registration. The second is if the parties, if approved, will stay registered after the next general elections. This is important considering that INEC exercised its power in 2020 to deregister parties for failing to win 25% of votes cast in one state in a presidential election, one local government of a state in a governorship election, one ward in a local government chairmanship election, or a legislative seat at the federal, state or local level. A challenge to that decision by one of the deregistered parties failed at the Supreme Court, further affirming INEC’s powers in this regard.
The presence of numerous political parties is supposed to make for a more vibrant political space as they seed public discourse with their different ideas and visions for society. However, Nigerian political parties have failed to distinguish themselves from each other and are more likely to add noise to Nigeria’s democracy rather than deepen it. Nigeria’s party system has historically fluctuated in size, and even before INEC’s deregistration of non-performing parties, the impact of most of the parties had not been felt.
As per the legal requirements, INEC has up to a year before the general elections to approve any new parties. However, these applicants will be hoping that they get their approvals sooner.
Fun fact: Nigeria currently has 18 registered political parties, all of which met the conditions for remaining registered after the 2023 general elections.
Rejigging the Master Document
A fresh wave of constitutional amendment proposals has passed a second reading in Nigeria’s House of Representatives, marking a renewed attempt by lawmakers to reshape the country’s legal and political architecture across multiple fronts.
Among the most notable proposals is a bill to remove constitutional immunity from prosecution for vice presidents, governors, and deputies. This unprecedented shift could open top officials to legal accountability while in office. Another key bill seeks to revert Nigeria to a parliamentary system of government, moving away from the current presidential structure.
Lawmakers also proposed introducing citizenship by investment, allowing foreigners to obtain Nigerian citizenship through financial contributions. However, details on thresholds or frameworks are yet to be defined. Another bill grants the Nigerian Bar Association the legal right to demand the removal of judges, giving the association a more active role in judicial accountability.
A separate proposal seeks to elevate existing Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) in Lagos State to full-fledged Local Government Areas (LGAs). If successful, this move will increase the number of LGAs in Lagos from 20 to 57, potentially expanding access to federal allocations and institutional legitimacy in many communities.
The batch of 39 bills also includes measures to streamline election timelines and institutions. These include conducting all federal, state, and local elections on the same date, granting the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) powers to organise local government elections, and making the Court of Appeal the final arbiter in governorship and state legislative election disputes.
Other bills passed through second reading include the creation of state and local police forces, the establishment of a House of Assembly for the Federal Capital Territory, and constitutional provisions for special legislative seats for persons with disabilities.
The proposals now move to the House Committee on Constitution Review for further legislative action. None of the bills have been debated on the floor, and their outcomes will depend on a rigorous approval process that has historically seen many constitutional amendments stall or fail.
This is a continuation in the process to make the Nigerian Constitution more fit for purpose. However, not everyone is thrilled with the amendment process: a group called The Patriots, led by the former Commonwealth Secretary-General Emeka Anyaoku, is calling for a constituent assembly for the drafting of a new constitution. It is unlikely that this call will be heeded by the country’s political leadership.
Fun fact: The 1999 Constitution has undergone five sets of alterations, including three in 2010 and the last one in 2023 when outgoing president Muhammadu Buhari signed 16 constitutional alteration bills into law.
And In Other News….
The African Development Bank has announced that it is establishing a Nigerian Youth Entrepreneurship Bank.
A Premium Times report highlights how anti-deforestation rules set by the European Union are threatening Nigeria’s cocoa exports.
At least 30 states are at risk of getting flooded in 2025, says the Federal Government.
Nigeria’s Health Minister says that at least 16,000 doctors have left the country since 2017.